Operational resilience and climate disruption — part 3 of 3. Climate outlook checked on 9 October 2026.
Climate disruption can affect a business long before water reaches its premises or excessive heat stops work at its own site. A supplier may lose access to water, a transport route may close or a power interruption may affect an essential service.
For business leaders, the practical question is how those events could affect the work needed to protect people, serve customers and maintain control. Climate adaptation becomes operational when someone knows what to monitor, what decision to make and how to change the work safely.
Why El Niño gives this discussion urgency
In its update of 8 October 2026, the World Meteorological Organization described El Niño as strengthening, with a forecast peak around December. The outlook points to above-average temperatures across much of the globe and changes in rainfall patterns that increase drought and flood risks in different regions. Read the dated WMO seasonal update.
This is a large-scale seasonal forecast, not a prediction that any particular business will experience a specific disruption. Local conditions, the location of suppliers and the vulnerability of the work determine what it means for an organisation. Forecasts also change, so decisions should use current regional information.
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon operating alongside longer-term warming. Preparing for its possible effects provides an immediate reason to examine dependencies; the need to understand those dependencies extends beyond one event.
Follow the route from hazard to critical work
Start with a simple chain: hazard, dependency, affected work, consequence, response. This is a practical discussion tool, not a climate-risk score.
In an illustrative manufacturing business, drought could restrict water available to a supplier. That could reduce material deliveries, interrupt production and delay customer orders. The response might involve an approved substitute, a revised production plan and early customer communication. Each step requires information and someone authorised to act.
The Climate Change Committee’s supply-chain briefing explains that climate impacts in the UK and overseas can cause price rises, delays, disruption and failures in supply. A company’s exposure therefore includes the networks it depends on, as well as its own premises. Read the CCC briefing on resilient supply chains.
Examine people, resources and delivery together
Three areas provide a useful starting point:
- People: how could heat, disrupted travel or loss of access affect safe working and the availability of essential skills?
- Resources: where does critical work depend on water, energy, communications, materials, premises or a particular supplier?
- Delivery: how would reduced capacity affect priorities, customer commitments, quality checks and cash collection?
People’s safety must shape the response. The International Labour Organization’s 2024 review documents serious effects of occupational heat, including acute illness and longer-term health harm. Businesses should involve competent health and safety advice when determining protections and safe working arrangements. Read the ILO report, Heat at work: Implications for safety and health.
Operational planning then needs to reflect those arrangements. A delivery plan that assumes unchanged output when work must be reduced or stopped is not a usable response.
Give each response a trigger and an owner
“Monitor the situation” becomes useful when the organisation identifies the information, the person reviewing it and the point at which action is required. That might involve local weather warnings, a supplier’s revised delivery commitment or a site-specific limit established through competent assessment.
For one critical process, record the minimum acceptable outcome, the dependencies needed to achieve it and the signs that those dependencies are under pressure. Then specify who can change the plan, what alternatives are available and how affected people will be informed.
Test the assumptions. A remote-working arrangement depends on suitable work, access and communications. An alternative supplier needs usable capacity and appropriate approvals. A second site may share the same electricity or transport dependency as the first.
Build adaptation into the way work is managed
Some responses require investment in buildings, equipment or supply arrangements. Others begin with clearer responsibilities, accessible knowledge and better decisions. Process management helps connect those actions to everyday work; it cannot remove the physical hazard or replace specialist assessment where that is needed.
After an exercise or real disruption, update the process, train the people affected and check that the change has been adopted. Otherwise the lesson remains separate from the work it was meant to improve.
At E-Squared, we are exploring climate disruption as a practical application of operational resilience: making critical work clearer, more consistent and easier to manage when conditions change. It is also a question about growth. Plans to expand are more useful when the organisation understands the dependencies on which delivery rests.
Which dependency would be hardest to replace?
If climate disruption affected one essential input to your business, what would prevent you replacing it in time? We welcome experiences and questions from business leaders. Contact E-Squared to discuss your critical work and operational dependencies.
Also in this series: What makes work critical to a growing business? and Can a business be efficient but fragile?
